War of the Triumvirate

It seems pretty likely that my three favorite music artists in the universe: Neil Young, Tom Petty, and Taylor Swift, will each release new records this year. So the natural question becomes, whose record will reign supreme??

I had a similar bout (a warm-up match, you could say), when over the course of about a year (2012-2013) I got to see all three of these acts live, in all their flesh and glory. Tom Petty won that fight decisively, bringing out an exceedingly surprising, very rare and sincerely inspired set of deep cut gems & lost classics. But in the grand scheme, it was really more of a draw... A sourly unfortunate illness muddled what may be my last chance to see my all-time favorite band, Neil Young & Crazy Horse. And while Taylor Swift's 2013 concert was merely great, and not Great with a capital G, her 2011 Speak Now show ranks uncontested as the greatest concert I've yet had the pleasure to witness. So Petty won this particular battle, but the War of the Triumvirate rages on in an apparent stalemate. And so, we cross the latest battlefield.


Artist: Neil Young
Album: A Letter Home
Expected Release Date: May 27, 2014

A Letter Home is a lo-fi acoustic covers record from Neil Young, recorded with Jack White in a phone booth. As ever, Neil is an inspired rogue, and it's electrifying. The song selection isn't especailly inspired -- My Home Town and Girl From the North Country are alright songs by Bruce Springsteen and Bob Dylan respectively, but they're pretty mediocre selections from artists with such spellbinding catalogs. But on the upside, it's a lo-fi record, which is by far the medium in which Neil's acoustic material sounds best. And Neil's previous covers album -- Americana -- was one of the most wonderful and unique albums of his career. Can A Letter Home match it? Quite possibly, we'll have to wait and see.

Neil Young's newer music is, just like all his older music, uneven and relentlessly, inconceivably unpredictable. But when he's good, he's really good, and the 21st Century has been a different kind of renaissance for him. Records like Living With War and Psychedelic Pill are better than anything he released in the 80s, and he's done a lot of interesting experiments.


Artist: Tom Petty
Album: Hypnotic Eye
Estimated Release Date: Summer 2014

They started out with a record of blues-rock just like their last jam, 2010's Mojo. And that'd have been fine with me, Mojo was spectacular. But not wanting to repeat themselves, they kept the best tracks off of that unreleased record, and continued recording for another year or two. Now they have a hodgepodge of prime tracks that supposeldy harken back to The Heartbreakers' early new wave days, with terse, static-charged rockers like "Anything That's Rock N Roll," and "Listen to Her Heart." How true that description is, we won't know 'till we hear it. But it's a highly promising and evocative imagery.

If anyone can knock a new record out of the park, surely it's Petty. He's amazed me again and again with his ability to retain vitality and create work that is great in new ways, ways that don't merely repeat the past. Lately his work has gotten impressively instrumental, so a part of me is hoping he'll return to a stricter format just so I can see if he still has his pop powers. And he was at the peak of his pop powers when the Heartbreakers began, with hits like American Girl and Breakdown. So, if the press rings true, this could be the ideal record I've been hoping for.


Artist: Taylor Swift
Album: TBD
Estimated Release Date: Fall 2014

She may be my third favorite artist, but typically Taylor Swift is not in the same league as Neil Young and Tom Petty. Neil and Tom have unfathomable **fifty year** careers to draw from, and fifteen years of leal service (in my life, specifically) under their belts. Tay has the potential to parallel their reigns if she can keep up her pace for forty years, but as of yet she's a small fry.

However, what Taylor has on her side, is youth. Even great artists tend to wear down after 5 or 6 albums and lose the magic. The only people apparently immune to this are Neil and Tom themselves. But Taylor's still in that sweet spot, where it's not just possible but *probable* that every new album will demonstrate the peak of her powers and attain classic status. Even if the new record isn't great, it's an inherently more meaningful experience to witness an artist in her heyday creating history rather than reliving it or running from it.

Very few details have yet been unearthed for how Tay is crafting her fifth full-length album. She's leaned towards pop, rock, country, and folk so far, could R&B or adult contemporary be next? No matter what she does, it will be interesting to hear. Her last album, Red, may not have been her best record yet. But as she continues to grow and mature, the promise of brave new work increases by exponents. And  thus far Taylor has always been willing to probe new territory.


Assessment:

Tom Petty's new record *sounds* the best, at least on paper. And it'd be no surprise for the rougish King Bee to sneak another victory, his 00s output has been among his all-time best, and it's more consistently great than Neil Young's 00s output is.

But Neil Young is like a Chaos Orb, or a Mad Targaryen. Every time he makes an album, the gods flip a coin, and born forth into the world is either a new dud (like Fork in the Road) or a new God (like Americana). A Letter Home will most likely be either crushingly awesome, or mostly forgettable. But if it's crushingly awesome, Petty and Tay don't stand a chance.

And of the opposite persuasion we have Taylor Swift, whose record is the only one out of the three that is basically guaranteed to be decent. An artist in her prime, with zero subpar records on her roster? A genuine failure would be unheard of. Now, whether the new record will err on the middling side of Red, or the flawless perfection of Fearless -- will depend largely on what new mode Tay chooses for its modus operandi. And of that, we know little yet.

So it truly is anyone's game, and I can't wait to hear all three!